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2019年,第一只黑天鹅被投资银行愚弄,在吉利的高端市场上大张旗鼓。开元棋牌反水点高的_开元棋牌是坑吗_开元棋牌斗牛透视财经

????资料来源:王亚元香港股票圈闻Xiangjiang Tsui。下午,一则简单而粗俗的新闻突然出现在信息窗口:图片来源:华尔街新闻。戴姆勒是全球汽车品牌大本的母公司。在恍惚中,我回忆起去年这个时候一件“大事”:吉利收购梅赛德斯-奔驰。图片来源:X微信公众。2018年2月24日,吉利集团宣布拥有梅赛德斯-奔驰母公司戴姆勒集团(DMLRY)9.69%的股份。并成为最大股东。此次收购涉及约90亿美元。在2017年牛市的背景下,这则新闻对吉利的未来更具幻想(0175年)。HK)一年后,当我看到这个消息时,我打开了市场软件,查看了戴姆勒的股价。图片中的红色箭头是采集的时刻。图片来源:财富之路,戴姆勒集团美国ADR股价走势。凭借多年的韭菜制作经验,很难做到这么完美的高档板!以高股价买入,股价下跌,必须进行清算。这是合理的。但我们只能记住,当吉利收购戴姆勒时,戴姆勒的管理层曾表示吉利是“长期投资者”。图片来源:戴姆勒官方网站。那么,如果它是油炸的,怎么能买高卖低呢?吉利的基金似乎遇到了麻烦,或者最初的收购被杠杆化了。为了理解吉利为何大规模出售戴姆勒,以及吉利如何利用这笔交易,我们需要回到一年前大规模收购的细节。1。“吞蛇大象”收购详情。吉利完成收购后,国内媒体开始以压倒性优势报道“梅赛德斯-奔驰是中国人!”我们买了奔驰!人民的爱国热情一度达到高潮。图片来源:中央电视台财经频道。然而,一些谨慎的媒体仍然对这一巨额收购的资金来源感兴趣。在与吉利管理层的沟通中,有很多关于“资金来源”的对话。如图所示,吉利首席财务官(CFO)李东辉反复强调,用于收购的资金只是“一小部分”,这些话似乎令人满意。吉利的官方披露将收购基金描述为不使用国内基金。当然,这是我们的监督和媒体最关心的。毕竟,长期以来,利用国内资金进行海外收购一直是“大禁忌”。在此之前和之后,许多中国企业的国内杠杆式海外收购案都已停止,包括万达、安邦等。由于吉利的海外收购没有利用国内资金,因此国内媒体和监管不会受到太多的追捧。中国企业可以收购德国老汽车制造商,这可以被视为国际舞台上的一个助推器。从政府到私营部门,他们也很高兴看到这一点。德国媒体还透露,该交易不涉及监管红线,德国联邦金融监管局(BAFIN)已完成调查,并决定不对吉利处以任何处罚。照片来源:媒体。吉利的收购资金似乎都来自国外。那么谁为它提供了杠杆作用呢?这些是国际投资银行的巨头吗?2。吉利的高杠杆是从哪里来的?以一种尝试的态度,我在谷歌上搜索“吉利戴姆勒杠杆”。然而,结果却出奇的小!Uuuuuuuuuuuuu首先阅读了彭博社的报告。据彭博社报道,此次收购涉及美国银行和摩根士丹利(MorganStanley),以一种称为“领子”的方式进行,涉及一系列复杂的股权衍生品交易。图片来源:彭博社和继续探索,我在博科尼学生投资俱乐部的网站上找到了一份收购分析报告。图片来源:博科尼学生投资俱乐部,本文披露了交易的一些细节。事实证明,吉利使用了一种称为“融资股权领”的金融衍生工具,“这使得吉利能够在没有大量外部资本的情况下建立更大的股票头寸,同时使用期权使吉利能够建立股票头寸,同时避免了德国监管机构对其持有超过3%的股票和提高信用卡的要求。”ru莱斯:“这样一个复杂的安排,第一,不需要外部融资;第二,它可以用一大笔钱来杠杆化一大笔股份;第三,它可以规避德国的监管要求。真是一石二鸟!令人惊讶的是,只有世界上最聪明的投资银行才能设计出如此完美的解决方案!但鱼和熊掌不能两者兼得。正是这个看似完美无缝的计划隐藏了巨大的风险。风险在于选择权的使用。期权被认为是高杠杆和高风险的投资工具。吉利收购戴姆勒的计划涉及看涨期权和看跌期权,一个是多头,另一个是空头,因此该计划本身的杠杆率非常高。这意味着,只要戴姆勒的股价跌到一定范围之外,吉利就面临着一个极其危险的局面——仓位爆棚!从吉利大规模减持戴姆勒股份的角度来看,吉利很可能收到了“追加保证金”的请求,或者实际上已经扩大了其头寸,不幸的是。吉利交易中涉及的领子交易对很多人来说都是陌生的。事实上,它离我们不远。12月底,我们三大石油巨头之一的中石化在原油投机活动中遭受了巨大损失,这得益于这种“领子贸易”。看来吉利不是第一个,当然也不是最后一个。2018年2月,吉利投入巨资收购梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)的母公司戴姆勒(Daimler),戴姆勒的股价今天已下跌近一半,吉利今年的下跌并非一帆风顺。投资失败是一个必然的结论,但加剧这种情况的是汽车行业过去一年的整体萧条。图片来源:华南早报。过去一周(1月7日),吉利公布12月销售额同比下降44%,第二天股价暴跌11%。销量下降、股价下跌以及戴姆勒未能投资,都让吉利丧失了信心。吉利设定了2019年汽车保有量151万辆的目标,与2018年的计划相比没有增加或减少。图片来源:财富之路销售不佳的背后,一方面是中美贸易形势的不确定性,另一方面是中国经济的低迷。2018年,中国汽车销量自1990年以来首次下滑,标志着中国经济的重要转折点。吉利并不是唯一受影响的汽车公司。今年中国新车销量整体下滑的原因有很多:1)取消了2015年政府推出的购车减税和免税政策;2)中国二手车市场不断增长,这有损新车的市场份额;3)地方政府对Onlin的限制。e汽车销售、居民住房负债过多、购车后税收保险等维修费用过多,也使居民面临购车的大局。希望因素。这在中国是真的,其他国家的情况也不怎么好。事实上,吉利所经历的只是目前全球汽车市场寒冬的一部分。据第三季度统计,2018年9月,全球主要国家的汽车销量出现下滑,而前三季度的总销量在许多国家也有所下降(中国仅增长1.5%)。图片来源:汽车垂直和水平杂志,基于国家汽车协会的数据。日本汽车工业信息咨询公司(Jato)最近调查了57个国家的汽车市场,称全球经济受到最大经济体之间贸易摩擦不确定性的威胁,这将影响下半年全球汽车市场的走势。世界知名的商业分析师ihsmarkit预测,2023年后,全球新车需求将每年减少约200万辆,全球汽车销量将减少约2%。2025年,全球新车销量预计在1.1亿辆左右,比2017年增长约1600万辆。2018年至2025年的年均增长率仅为2.0%,几乎是2011年至2017年3.7%的一半。在世界汽车消费市场长期低迷的前提下,中国汽车市场的冬天将长期持续。4。结束语:吉利减持戴姆勒股份的消息最早由彭博社援引“内部人士”报道。但是吉利的官方网站很快发布了谣言。图片来源:吉利汽车官方网站。今天,中国的国内生产总值预计将在2019年下降,中国的经济进一步放缓,吉利最近的坏消息,12月的销售,使戴姆勒的减产的消息似乎是空的,但并非没有理由。无论如何,戴姆勒的股价已经减半,吉利的股价也减半。2016至2017年间,香港吉利汽车(0175港元)的股价从3上升至30。站在2018年初,我想无论是股东还是公司管理层,谁都会想到一年后,今天的情况会如此糟糕。有时候,判断市场,看理性数据和历史分析,太容易自欺欺人。2018年,我们可以看到,我们面前的神话一个接一个地被打破,2019年,神话将继续被打破。从白马到价值投资,从腾讯到亚马逊,从安邦到九鼎,现在轮到吉利了……在杠杆扩张之前,股价曾一度飙升至地平线,但现在销售和利润的下滑已被市场所破坏:见他高楼拔高,见他的大楼倒塌。突然,但是一年。这步太大了,不可能拉到一机机。2016年,陷入困境的“周期之王”尼古拉斯·托德拉齐耶夫·周(Nicholas Todraziev Chou)表示,2018/19年是康波万毁灭的一年。今天,它似乎基本上是一个全球性的现实。我们平凡的人,不知道康波,却知道世界的心摆,总是来来去去去:再一次的风景,今天有更多的孤独。审查免责声明:所有从媒体合成的内容都来自媒体,版权属于原作者。请联系原作者并获得复制许可。文章的观点只代表作者本人,而不是开元棋牌反水点高的_开元棋牌是坑吗_开元棋牌斗牛透视的立场。如果内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考,不作为投资依据。投资是有风险的,所以进入市场时要谨慎。责任编辑:白仲平

zi liao lai yuan: wang ya yuan xiang gang gu piao quan wen Xiangjiang Tsui. xia wu, yi ze jian dan er cu su de xin wen tu ran chu xian zai xin xi chuang kou: tu pian lai yuan: hua er jie xin wen. dai mu lei shi quan qiu qi che pin pai da ben de mu gong si. zai huang hu zhong, wo hui yi qi qu nian zhe ge shi hou yi jian" da shi": ji li shou gou mei sai de si ben chi. tu pian lai yuan: X wei xin gong zhong. 2018 nian 2 yue 24 ri, ji li ji tuan xuan bu yong you mei sai de si ben chi mu gong si dai mu lei ji tuan DMLRY 9. 69 de gu fen. bing cheng wei zui da gu dong. ci ci shou gou she ji yue 90 yi mei yuan. zai 2017 nian niu shi de bei jing xia, zhe ze xin wen dui ji li de wei lai geng ju huan xiang 0175 nian. HK yi nian hou, dang wo kan dao zhe ge xiao xi shi, wo da kai le shi chang ruan jian, zha kan le dai mu lei de gu jia. tu pian zhong de hong se jian tou shi cai ji de shi ke. tu pian lai yuan: cai fu zhi lu, dai mu lei ji tuan mei guo ADR gu jia zou shi. ping jie duo nian de jiu cai zhi zuo jing yan, hen nan zuo dao zhe me wan mei di gao dang ban! yi gao gu jia mai ru, gu jia xia die, bi xu jin xing qing suan. zhe shi he li de. dan wo men zhi neng ji zhu, dang ji li shou gou dai mu lei shi, dai mu lei de guan li ceng ceng biao shi ji li shi" chang qi tou zi zhe". tu pian lai yuan: dai mu lei guan fang wang zhan. na me, ru guo ta shi you zha de, zen me neng mai gao mai di ne? ji li de ji jin si hu yu dao le ma fan, huo zhe zui chu de shou gou bei gang gan hua le. wei le li jie ji li wei he da gui mo chu shou dai mu lei, yi ji ji li ru he li yong zhe bi jiao yi, wo men xu yao hui dao yi nian qian da gui mo shou gou de xi jie. 1." tun she da xiang" shou gou xiang qing. ji li wan cheng shou gou hou, guo nei mei ti kai shi yi ya dao xing you shi bao dao" mei sai de si ben chi shi zhong guo ren!" wo men mai le ben chi! ren min de ai guo re qing yi du da dao gao chao. tu pian lai yuan: zhong yang dian shi tai cai jing pin dao. ran er, yi xie jin shen de mei ti reng ran dui zhe yi ju e shou gou de zi jin lai yuan gan xing qu. zai yu ji li guan li ceng de gou tong zhong, you hen duo guan yu" zi jin lai yuan" de dui hua. ru tu suo shi, ji li shou xi cai wu guan CFO li dong hui fan fu qiang diao, yong yu shou gou de zi jin zhi shi" yi xiao bu fen", zhei xie hua si hu ling ren man yi. ji li de guan fang pi lu jiang shou gou ji jin miao shu wei bu shi yong guo nei ji jin. dang ran, zhe shi wo men de jian du he mei ti zui guan xin de. bi jing, chang qi yi lai, li yong guo nei zi jin jin xing hai wai shou gou yi zhi shi" da jin ji". zai ci zhi qian he zhi hou, xu duo zhong guo qi ye de guo nei gang gan shi hai wai shou gou an dou yi ting zhi, bao kuo wan da an bang deng. you yu ji li de hai wai shou gou mei you li yong guo nei zi jin, yin ci guo nei mei ti he jian guan bu hui shou dao tai duo de zhui peng. zhong guo qi ye ke yi shou gou de guo lao qi che zhi zao shang, zhe ke yi bei shi wei guo ji wu tai shang de yi ge zhu tui qi. cong zheng fu dao si ying bu men, ta men ye hen gao xing kan dao zhe yi dian. de guo mei ti hai tou lu, gai jiao yi bu she ji jian guan hong xian, de guo lian bang jin rong jian guan ju BAFIN yi wan cheng diao cha, bing jue ding bu dui ji li chu yi ren he chu fa. zhao pian lai yuan: mei ti. ji li de shou gou zi jin si hu dou lai zi guo wai. na me shui wei ta ti gong le gang gan zuo yong ne? zhei xie shi guo ji tou zi yin hang de ju tou ma? 2. ji li de gao gang gan shi cong na li lai de? yi yi zhong chang shi de tai du, wo zai gu ge shang sou suo" ji li dai mu lei gang gan". ran er, jie guo que chu qi de xiao! Uuuuuuuuuuuuu shou xian yue du le peng bo she de bao gao. ju peng bo she bao dao, ci ci shou gou she ji mei guo yin hang he mo gen shi dan li MorganStanley, yi yi zhong cheng wei" ling zi" de fang shi jin xing, she ji yi xi lie fu za de gu quan yan sheng pin jiao yi. tu pian lai yuan: peng bo she he ji xu tan suo, wo zai bo ke ni xue sheng tou zi ju le bu de wang zhan shang zhao dao le yi fen shou gou fen xi bao gao. tu pian lai yuan: bo ke ni xue sheng tou zi ju le bu, ben wen pi lu le jiao yi de yi xie xi jie. shi shi zheng ming, ji li shi yong le yi zhong cheng wei" rong zi gu quan ling" de jin rong yan sheng gong ju," zhe shi de ji li neng gou zai mei you da liang wai bu zi ben de qing kuang xia jian li geng da de gu piao tou cun, tong shi shi yong qi quan shi ji li neng gou jian li gu piao tou cun, tong shi bi mian le de guo jian guan ji gou dui qi chi you chao guo 3 de gu piao he ti gao xin yong ka de yao qiu." ru lai si:" zhe yang yi ge fu za de an pai, di yi, bu xu yao wai bu rong zi di er, ta ke yi yong yi da bi qian lai gang gan hua yi da bi gu fen di san, ta ke yi gui bi de guo de jian guan yao qiu. zhen shi yi shi er niao! ling ren jing ya de shi, zhi you shi jie shang zui cong ming de tou zi yin hang cai neng she ji chu ru ci wan mei di jie jue fang an! dan yu huo xiong zhang bu neng liang zhe jian de. zheng shi zhe ge kan si wan mei wu feng de ji hua yin cang le ju da de feng xian. feng xian zai yu xuan ze quan de shi yong. qi quan bei ren wei shi gao gang gan he gao feng xian de tou zi gong ju. ji li shou gou dai mu lei de ji hua she ji kan zhang qi quan he kan die qi quan, yi ge shi duo tou, ling yi ge shi kong tou, yin ci gai ji hua ben shen de gang gan lv fei chang gao. zhe yi wei zhe, zhi yao dai mu lei de gu jia die dao yi ding fan wei zhi wai, ji li jiu mian lin zhe yi ge ji qi wei xian de ju mian cang wei bao peng! cong ji li da gui mo jian chi dai mu lei gu fen de jiao du lai kan, ji li hen ke neng shou dao le" zhui jia bao zheng jin" de qing qiu, huo zhe shi ji shang yi jing kuo da le qi tou cun, bu xing de shi. ji li jiao yi zhong she ji de ling zi jiao yi dui hen duo ren lai shuo dou shi mo sheng de. shi shi shang, ta li wo men bu yuan. 12 yue di, wo men san da shi you ju tou zhi yi de zhong shi hua zai yuan you tou ji huo dong zhong zao shou le ju da sun shi, zhe de yi yu zhe zhong" ling zi mao yi". kan lai ji li bu shi di yi ge, dang ran ye bu shi zui hou yi ge. 2018 nian 2 yue, ji li tou ru ju zi shou gou mei sai de si ben chi MercedesBenz de mu gong si dai mu lei Daimler, dai mu lei de gu jia jin tian yi xia die jin yi ban, ji li jin nian de xia die bing fei yi fan feng shun. tou zi shi bai shi yi ge bi ran de jie lun, dan jia ju zhe zhong qing kuang de shi qi che hang ye guo qu yi nian de zheng ti xiao tiao. tu pian lai yuan: hua nan zao bao. guo qu yi zhou 1 yue 7 ri, ji li gong bu 12 yue xiao shou e tong bi xia jiang 44, di er tian gu jia bao die 11. xiao liang xia jiang gu jia xia die yi ji dai mu lei wei neng tou zi, dou rang ji li sang shi le xin xin. ji li she ding le 2019 nian qi che bao you liang 151 wan liang de mu biao, yu 2018 nian de ji hua xiang bi mei you zeng jia huo jian shao. tu pian lai yuan: cai fu zhi lu xiao shou bu jia de bei hou, yi fang mian shi zhong mei mao yi xing shi de bu que ding xing, ling yi fang mian shi zhong guo jing ji de di mi. 2018 nian, zhong guo qi che xiao liang zi 1990 nian yi lai shou ci xia hua, biao zhi zhe zhong guo jing ji de zhong yao zhuan zhe dian. ji li bing bu shi wei yi shou ying xiang de qi che gong si. jin nian zhong guo xin che xiao liang zheng ti xia hua de yuan yin you hen duo: 1 qu xiao le 2015 nian zheng fu tui chu de gou che jian shui he mian shui zheng ce 2 zhong guo er shou che shi chang bu duan zeng zhang, zhe you sun xin che de shi chang fen e 3 di fang zheng fu dui Onlin de xian zhi. e qi che xiao shou ju min zhu fang fu zhai guo duo gou che hou shui shou bao xian deng wei xiu fei yong guo duo, ye shi ju min mian lin gou che de da ju. xi wang yin su. zhe zai zhong guo shi zhen de, qi ta guo jia de qing kuang ye bu zen me hao. shi shi shang, ji li suo jing li de zhi shi mu qian quan qiu qi che shi chang han dong de yi bu fen. ju di san ji du tong ji, 2018 nian 9 yue, quan qiu zhu yao guo jia de qi che xiao liang chu xian xia hua, er qian san ji du de zong xiao liang zai xu duo guo jia ye you suo xia jiang zhong guo jin zeng zhang 1. 5. tu pian lai yuan: qi che chui zhi he shui ping za zhi, ji yu guo jia qi che xie hui de shu ju. ri ben qi che gong ye xin xi zi xun gong si Jato zui jin diao cha le 57 ge guo jia de qi che shi chang, cheng quan qiu jing ji shou dao zui da jing ji ti zhi jian mao yi mo ca bu que ding xing de wei xie, zhe jiang ying xiang xia ban nian quan qiu qi che shi chang de zou shi. shi jie zhi ming de shang ye fen xi shi ihsmarkit yu ce, 2023 nian hou, quan qiu xin che xu qiu jiang mei nian jian shao yue 200 wan liang, quan qiu qi che xiao liang jiang jian shao yue 2. 2025 nian, quan qiu xin che xiao liang yu ji zai 1. 1 yi liang zuo you, bi 2017 nian zeng zhang yue 1600 wan liang. 2018 nian zhi 2025 nian de nian jun zeng zhang lv jin wei 2. 0, ji hu shi 2011 nian zhi 2017 nian 3. 7 de yi ban. zai shi jie qi che xiao fei shi chang zhang qi di mi de qian ti xia, zhong guo qi che shi chang de dong tian jiang chang qi chi xu. 4. jie shu yu: ji li jian chi dai mu lei gu fen de xiao xi zui zao you peng bo she yuan yin" nei bu ren shi" bao dao. dan shi ji li de guan fang wang zhan hen kuai fa bu le yao yan. tu pian lai yuan: ji li qi che guan fang wang zhan. jin tian, zhong guo de guo nei sheng chan zong zhi yu ji jiang zai 2019 nian xia jiang, zhong guo de jing ji jin yi bu fang huan, ji li zui jin de huai xiao xi, 12 yue de xiao shou, shi dai mu lei de jian chan de xiao xi si hu shi kong de, dan bing fei mei you li you. wu lun ru he, dai mu lei de gu jia yi jing jian ban, ji li de gu jia ye jian ban. 2016 zhi 2017 nian jian, xiang gang ji li qi che 0175 gang yuan de gu jia cong 3 shang sheng zhi 30. zhan zai 2018 nian chu, wo xiang wu lun shi gu dong hai shi gong si guan li ceng, shui dou hui xiang dao yi nian hou, jin tian de qing kuang hui ru ci zao gao. you shi hou, pan duan shi chang, kan li xing shu ju he li shi fen xi, tai rong yi zi qi qi ren. 2018 nian, wo men ke yi kan dao, wo men mian qian de shen hua yi ge jie yi ge di bei da po, 2019 nian, shen hua jiang ji xu bei da po. cong bai ma dao jia zhi tou zi, cong teng xun dao ya ma xun, cong an bang dao jiu ding, xian zai lun dao ji li le zai gang gan kuo zhang zhi qian, gu jia ceng yi du biao sheng zhi di ping xian, dan xian zai xiao shou he li run de xia hua yi bei shi chang suo po huai: jian ta gao lou ba gao, jian ta de da lou dao ta. tu ran, dan shi yi nian. zhe bu tai da le, bu ke neng la dao yi ji ji. 2016 nian, xian ru kun jing de" zhou qi zhi wang" ni gu la si tuo de la qi ye fu zhou Nicholas Todraziev Chou biao shi, 2018 19 nian shi kang bo wan hui mie de yi nian. jin tian, ta si hu ji ben shang shi yi ge quan qiu xing de xian shi. wo men ping fan de ren, bu zhi dao kang bo, que zhi dao shi jie de xin bai, zong shi lai lai qu qu qu: zai yi ci de feng jing, jin tian you geng duo de gu du. shen zha mian ze sheng ming: suo you cong mei ti he cheng de nei rong dou lai zi mei ti, ban quan shu yu yuan zuo zhe. qing lian xi yuan zuo zhe bing huo de fu zhi xu ke. wen zhang de guan dian zhi dai biao zuo zhe ben ren, er bu shi xin lang de li chang. ru guo nei rong she ji tou zi jian yi, jin gong can kao, bu zuo wei tou zi yi ju. tou zi shi you feng xian de, suo yi jin ru shi chang shi yao jin shen. ze ren bian ji: bai zhong ping

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